Monograph
Minority Ethnic Mobilization in the Russian Federation, 2003, Cambridge University Press. You can download the introductory chapter of the book or purchase it at Amazon.com in hardcover or paperback.
Journal Articles and Working Papers
“Russia’s Relations with Southeast Asia,” (with Paul Schwartz), IFRI Russia Report No. 26, March 2019
“Regimes of ethnicity and nationhood in Germany, Russia, and Turkey,” Book Symposium (with Sherrill Stroschein, Güneş Murat Tezcür & Şener Aktürk), 2014, Nationalities Papers 42(5): 890-904.
“The Unexpectedly Underwhelming Role of Ethnicity in Russian Politics, 1991-2011” (with Elise Giuliano), 2012, Demokratizatsiya 20(2): 175-188.
“The Causes and Consequences of Beslan” 2009, Political Geography 28 (1).
“Russia Confronts Radical Islam” Current History, October 2006.
“Rethinking Interethnic Marriage in the Soviet Union.” 2006, Post Soviet Affairs 22 (2): 145-165.
“Where Are We Going? What Is To Be Done?” (With Ronald G. Suny), 2006, AAASS NewsNet 46 (4).
“Great Promise Unfulfilled: How Russia Lost its Way after Independence” (with H.H. Gaffney), 2006, Insight Turkey 8 (1).
Also published as CSIS PONARS Working Paper #26, February 2006.
“Tatar Language Policies in Comparative Perspective: Why Some Revivals Fail and Some Succeed” 2005, Ab Imperio (1): 257-284.
“Nationalism for the Masses: Popular Support for Nationalism in Russia’s Ethnic Republics” 2001, Europe-Asia Studies 53 (1): 73-104.
“Not With One Voice: An Explanation of Intragroup Variation in Nationalist Sentiment” 2000, World Politics 53 (1): 115-142.
“Identity Change in Bashkortostan: Tatars into Bashkirs and Back” 1999, Ethnic and Racial Studies 22 (3): 554-580. Russian language version published in Vestnik Evrazii #1 2004
“Regional Separatism in Russia: Ethnic Mobilization or Power Grab?” 1999, Europe-Asia Studies 51 (2): 245-274. Russian language version published in Bashkortostan v Politicheskom Prostranstve, Ufa 2004
- NOTE: Articles should be downloaded for personal use only.
Book Chapters
“Kazakhstan: Potential Modes and Venues of Russian Aggression,” in To Have and To Hold, edited by Leon Aron, American Enterprise Institute, 2018.
“Ethnic Mobilization” in Managing Ethnic Diversity in Russia, edited by Oleh Protsyk and Benedikt Harzl. Routledge, 2012.
“The Military” in Routledge Handbook of Russian Politics and Society, edited by Graeme Gill and James Young. Routledge, 2012.
“Assimilation and Soviet Nationalities Policy” in Rebounding Identities: The Politics of Identity in Russia and Ukraine, edited by Blair Ruble, Nancy Popson and Dominique Arel. Woodrow Wilson Center Press, 2006.
“Tatars as Meso-Nation” in Emerging Meso-Areas in the Former Socialist Countries: Histories Revived or Improvised?, edited by Kimitaka Matsuzato, Hokkaido Slavic Research Center, 2005: 83-89.
“The Bashkir Community in Russia,” in The Ethnopolitical Encyclopaedia of Europe, edited by Karl Cordell and Stefan Wolff. Palgrave Macmillan, 2004.
“The Roots of Violence in South Africa,” In Beyond a Political Solution to Apartheid, edited by Evan Lieberman, Center of International Studies Monograph Series #4, Princeton University, 1993.
Policy Memos
“Russian Strategic Culture in a Baltic Crisis,” Marshall Center Strategic Insights #25, March 2019.
“Russia’s Strategy in Southeast Asia,” (with Paul Schwartz) PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo #578, March 2019.
“Circumstances Have Changed Since 1991, but Russia’s Core Foreign Policy Goals Have Not” PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo #560, January 2019.
“The Kerch Strait skirmish: a Law of the Sea perspective,” European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats, December 2018.
“Russia’s Military Modernization Plans: 2018-2027” PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo #495, November 2017.
“Russia’s Strategic Calculus: Threat Perceptions and Military Doctrine” PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo #448, November 2016.
“What Russia’s military operation in Syria can tell us about advances in its capabilities” PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo #424, March 2016.
“Russian Naval Shipbuilding: Is It Possible to Fulfill the Kremlin’s Grand Expectations?” PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo #395, October 2015.
“Countering Color Revolutions: Russia’s New Security Strategy and its Implications for U.S. Policy,” PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo #342, September 2014.
“The Sochi Olympics and Russian National Identity,” PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo #316, April 2014.
“Central Asian Military and Security Forces: Assessing the Impact of Foreign Assistance,” PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo #297, September 2013.
“The Russian Military under Sergei Shoigu: Will the Reform Continue?,” PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo #253, June 2013.
“The Southern Kuril Islands Dispute,” PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo #226, September 2012.
“Why Russia Supports Repressive Regimes in Syria and the Middle East,” PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo #198, June 2012.
“An Interactive Planning Approach to Shaping U.S.-Russian Relations,” PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo #172, September 2011.
“US-Russian Cooperation in the Caspian: An Opportunity Worth Pursuing,” PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo #136, March 2011.
“Russia’s State Armaments Program 2020: Is the Third Time the Charm for Military Modernization?” PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo #125, October 2010.
“Russia’s New Model Army: The Ongoing Radical Reform of the Russian Military,” PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo #78, September 2009.
“Russian Naval Deployments: A Return to Global Power Projection or a Temporary Blip?” PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo #57, April 2009.
“The Russian Black Sea Fleet after the Georgia War,” PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo #48, December 2008.
“Has the Russian Navy Turned a Corner? Recent Trends in Russian Shipbuilding and Naval Deployments,” PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo #23, September 2008.
“Russia’s Muslims: A Growing Challenge to Moscow,” PONARS Policy Memo #421, December 2006.
“The Failure of Tatar Language Revival” PONARS Policy Memo #379, December 2005.
“The View of Russian Electoral Reforms from Russia’s Ethnic Republics” PONARS Policy Memo #338, November 2004.
“The 2002 Russian Census and the Future of the Russian Population” PONARS Policy Memo #319, November 2003.
CNA Reports
(Some of the unlinked reports below may be available from the author by request)
“Russia’s Official Social Media Messaging: A Preliminary Analysis,” (with Paul Saunders, Samuel Bendett, Kasey Stricklin, Anya Fink, and Umida Hashimova), June 2019.
“Russia’s Naval Posture in the Black Sea and Mediterranean,” (with Sarah Vogler and Jeff Edmonds), June 2019.
“Russia’s Counterspace Collaboration Efforts with Iran and India,” (with Paul Schwartz, Umida Hashimova, Michael Connell, Samuel Bendett, and Maria Kingsley), March 2019.
“Russian Naval Leadership: Analysis of Service, Careers, and Personnel,” (with Kasey Stricklin and Samuel Bendett), April 2018.
“Conflict Assessment of the Western Balkans,” (with Vera Zakem, Zack Gold, P.K. Hammerberg, Danielle Johnson, and William Rosenau), February 2018.
“Assessing Russian Maritime Defense: Doctrine, Capabilities, Training,” (with Michael Kofman, Jeffrey Edmonds, Paul Schwartz, Umida Hashimova, Samuel Bendett, and Roger McDermott), December 2017.
2017 “Transregional Threats and Maritime Security Cooperation: Russia,” August 2017.
“Analytic Framework for Emulating Russian Decision-making,” (with Michael Kofman, Paul Schwartz, and Samuel Bendett), June 2017.
“The Russian Navy’s Role in the Pacific,” (with Michael Kofman, Paul Schwartz, and Samuel Bendett), February 2017.
“Russian Security Interests in the Asia-Pacific,” (with Paul Schwartz, Ken Gause, and Paul Saunders), February 2017.
“Emulating Russian Decision-Making,” (with Paul Saunders and Michael Connell), September 2016.
“Russia’s Naval Expansion Plans: Strategy and Implications for the U.S. Navy” (with Michael Kofman and Sarah Vogler), November 2015.
“Russia’s Naval Shipbuilding Plans” (with Michael Kofman and contributions by Eugene Cobble), November 2015.
“Strengthening the Navy’s Arctic Capabilities through Partnership” (with Ralph Espach, Patrick deGategno, Mark Rosen, and Sarah Vogler), CNA Research Memorandum, DRM-2014-U-007912, July 2014.
“Improving U.S.-India HA/DR Coordination in the Indian Ocean” (with Nilanthi Samaranayake, Catherine Lea), CNA Research Memorandum, DRM-2013-U-004941, July 2014. (Publicly released version of July 2013 publication)
“The Soviet Navy as an Emerging Far Seas Navy: A Case Study,” In From Over the Horizon: PLA Navy Operations in the Far Seas, Michael McDevitt, Catherine Lea, Alan Burns, Murray Scot Tanner, and Dmitry Gorenburg, CNA Research Memorandum, DRM-2013-C-006444-SR1, November 2013.
“Improving U.S.-India HA/DR Coordination in the Indian Ocean: Planning for the Next Calamity in the Indian Ocean” (with Nilanthi Samaranayake, Catherine Lea), CNA Research Memorandum, DRM-2013-U-004941, July 2013.
“The Southern Kuril Islands Dispute,” in The Long Littoral Project: Sea of Japan — A Maritime Perspective on Indo-Pacific Security, edited by Michael McDevitt, IRP-2013-U-002322-Final, April 2013. Also published in Japan’s Territorial Disputes: CNA Maritime Asia Project: Workshop Three, edited by Michael McDevitt and Catherine Lea, DCP-2013-U-005049-Final, June 2013.
“U.S.-Indian Burden-Sharing in the Indian Ocean: The Potential for Coordinated Capacity-Building in the Indian Ocean” (with Nilanthi Samaranayake, Satu Limaye, Catherine Lea, and Thomas Bowditch), CNA Research Memorandum, DRM-2012-U-001121-Final2, April 2013. (Publicly released version of July 2012 publication)
“Russian Defense Industry Modernization” (with Alla Kassianova and Greg Zalasky), CNA Research Memorandum, DRM-2012-U-002985-Final, November 2012.
“U.S.-Indian Burden-Sharing in the Indian Ocean: The Promise and Challenges of Coordinated Capacity Building” (with Nilanthi Samaranayake, Satu Limaye, Catherine Lea, and Thomas Bowditch), CNA Research Memorandum, DRM-2012-U-001121-Final, July 2012.
“Security and Cooperation in the Caspian: A Roadmap for U.S. Policy” (with contributions by Brian Ellison and Ken Gause), CNA Research Memorandum CRM D0024623.A2, March 2011.
“The Influence of Venezuela, China, Iran, and Russia in Latin America and Implications for U.S. Security” (with Ralph Espach, Michael Connell and PW Mackenzie), CNA Research Memorandum CRM D0021276.A2, October 2009.
“The Current State of the Russian Navy, December 2008” (with contributions by Ken Gause and Greg Zalasky), CNA Quick Response Study CQR D0019556.A1, December 2008.
“The Current State of the Russian Navy, May 2008” (with H.H. Gaffney and Ken Gause), CNA Quick Response Study CQR D0018285.A1, May 2008.
“Russian Leadership Decisionmaking under Vladimir Putin: The Issues of Energy, Technology Transfer, and Non-Proliferation” (with H.H. Gaffney and Ken Gause), CNA Research Memorandum CRM D0015917.A2, May 2007.
“Sub-Regional Strategy for Building Partner Capacity: Black Sea” (with Ken Gause and Eugene Cobble), CNA Annotated Briefing CAB D00013117.A1, December 2005.
“CNA’s Russia Program, 1991-2004: A Valedictory” (with H.H. Gaffney), CNA Information Memorandum D0012804.A3, August 2005.
“The Trajectory of ‘The Gap’ into the Future” (with H.H. Gaffney), CNA Information Memorandum D0012724.A1, July 2005.
“Ukraine: Perspectives on the Future” (with Mary Ellen Connell), CNA Memorandum CME D0012476.A1, June 2005.
“The American Way of War and its Transformation in the post-Cold War Period, 1989-2003” (with H.H. Gaffney, Eugene Cobble and Michael McDevitt), CNA Research Memorandum D0008607.A1, February 2004.
“The Future of Russia and the Russian Navy” (with H.H. Gaffney), CNA Information Memorandum D0009376.A1, January 2004.
“For the Record: All U.S. Forces’ Responses to Situations, 1970-2000” (with H.H. Gaffney and Eugene Cobble), CNA Information Memorandum D0008414.A2, August 2003.
“Sustaining U.S.-Russian Strategic Relations” (with H.H. Gaffney, Eugene Cobble, and Malia Dumont), CNA Information Memorandum D0008302.A1, May 2003.
“Security in the Baltic Sea Region: Final Report” (with Melissa Henton, Susan McArver, Debra Roepke, and Daniel Whiteneck), CNA Research Memorandum D0006917.A2, October 2002.
“Security in the Baltic Sea Region: Country Profiles and Recommendations” (with Melissa Henton, Susan McArver, Debra Roepke, and Daniel Whiteneck), CNA Research Memorandum D0006918.A2, October 2002.
“The Future of National Security: A Report on Workshops in Four Cities” (with H.H. Gaffney), CNA Research Memorandum D0003321.A1, August 2002.
“The Expansion of NATO into the Baltic Sea Region: Prague 2002 and Beyond” (with Melissa Henton, Debra Roepke, and Daniel Whiteneck), CNA Research Memorandum D0006161.A2, May 2002.
“Deterring Iraq across Alternative Futures” (with Tom Bowditch, Eric Thompson, Dokhi Fassihian, James Wylie and Mark Louma), CNA Research Memorandum CRM D0005171.A2, February 2002.
“U.S.- Russian Cooperation after September 11, 2001” (with H.H. Gaffney), CNA Information Memorandum D0005645.A1, January 2002.
“European Security & Russia: A Workshop at CNAC, 13 April 2001” (with H.H. Gaffney and Daniel Whiteneck), CNA Information Memorandum D0004282.A1, July 2001.
“Achieving Balance between the Navy’s Cooperation and Disclosure Policies: An Examination of the Navy’s Personnel Exchange Program” (with Susan McArver, Mark Rosen, Caroline Lane, and Patrick Roth), CNA Research Memorandum D0003604.A1, March 2001.
“U.S. Naval Responses to Situations, 1970-1999” (with H.H. Gaffney, Eugene Cobble, Adam Moody, Richard Weitz, and Daniel Whiteneck), CNA Research Memorandum D0002763.A2, December 2000.
“Renewing the US-Russian Strategic Partnership: Conference Report” CNA Information Memorandum D0002407.A1, November 2000.
Russian Military Reform 