The fate of the last state armaments program

Today’s NVO includes a reminder of the fate of procurement plans included in the last State Armaments Program (for 2006-2015) as the program has passed its halfway mark.

  • 7 Borei SSBNs: none in service to date (though two have been built), because of problems with the Bulava missile
  • 6 multi-purpose attack submarines: none built to date
  • 24 surface combat ships: 2 completed in the first 5 years
  • 116 new fighter aircraft: 22 completed
  • 156 new helicopters: 60 completed
  • 18 S-400 battalions: 4 completed
  • 5 Iskander brigades: 1 completed

I’m afraid I don’t have the time to verify the numbers right now or to break this down into specific components (types of aircraft, etc), but the general picture seems more or less correct.

The article goes on to note that in 2010, Russian defense industry received its full measure of allocated funding, while completing only 70 percent of state orders in 2010. This reinforces the point being made not just by analysts, but also by top generals: the condition of the Russian defense industry has deteriorated to the point that it is unable to keep up with demand. Most of its plants are desperately in need of modernization. Without an effort along these lines, the new State Armaments Program (for 2011-2020) is likely to fail as badly as the last.

8 thoughts on “The fate of the last state armaments program

  1. Hear, hear! Just one small example — 4 S-400 battalions is being generous. It assumes the two advertised recently will actually go on duty sometime this month. And the OPK’s production problems are just part of the issue. Systemic corruption is the other big one. Recall Korotchenko (not exactly a vociferious critic of the status quo) claiming that as much as 50 percent of the GOZ winds up in someone’s pocket each year.

  2. The numbers sound a bit dodgy.

    >6 multi-purpose attack submarines: none built to date

    If you count 955s, they you have to count 885 and 677. Severodvinsk has been built, but not commissioned. Sankt-Peterburg has been built and commissioned.

    So, that’s 2 out of 6 + 3 more under construction.

    Plus there is one project 21120 (B-90 Sarov) commissioned in 2007 which is too classified to properly classify.

    >24 surface combat ships: 2 completed in the first 5 years

    I count 4 completed + 7 under construction.

    >116 new fighter aircraft: 22 completed

    Now THAT is definitely dodgy numbers.

    There are at least 3 whole regiments of new Su-27SM (or airbases, as they are now called). That’s about 50-60 aircraft. There are also 15 new MiG-31BM. And 4 Yak-130 trainers (one lost).

    So, yeah, the methodology is suspect at best. But that’s NVO for you.

  3. artjomh,

    don’t bother with facts. You just spoiled Dmitry’s punchline.

    You’re suppose to be disgusted at how the plan has failed and bemoan the fact that the sky is about to fall from the heavens.

  4. Given the acquirement of 34 new Mi-29SMTs alone, those numbers sure are dodgy.

    The failure of state armament programs is nothing new- however it should be pointed out that each successive one is more successful, if leaving much to be desired. I expect this latest program to follow the trend.

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