Comments on: No more imports?

By: Is Shoigu reversing Serdyukov’s military reform? « Russian Military Reform

Tue, 12 Feb 2013 02:51:51 +0000

[...] take imports of military technology from foreign sources off the table. As I’ve already written, this will ease pressure on domestic defense industry to improve quality of production while [...]

By: Dmitry Gorenburg

Dmitry Gorenburg — Sat, 26 Jan 2013 04:00:18 +0000

I agree about the flag-waving aspect, though I disagree about the reasons for Serdyukov’s removal. I don’t think there are monocausal explanations for either the removal or the pronouncements on foreign military purchases. The Russian leaders are savvy enough to ensure that their actions and statements accomplish multiple ends. I believe that Serdyukov lost out in a battle among groups within the leadership and that one of the groups arrayed against him was people feeding at the defense industry trough, who were threatened by some of his reforms. This doesn’t mean that his removal wasn’t also a PR show against corruption. There’s no reason to waste a good opportunity, after all.

Similarly, on the pronouncements, of course they are flag-waving. But they are also an effort to ensure that profits continue to flow to the right people, rather than (partially) going abroad. (And the multi-tasking was prominent with the Serdyukov group as well — the foreign contracts were an effort to force domestic defense industry to reform, but also were set up in ways that financially benefited Serdyukov and his entourage.

As for acquiring foreign equipment underneath the radar screen, I think that is certainly doable for small purchases, but it’s close to impossible for big ticket items or serial production of major systems, which may be what’s needed in some cases.

By: Dmitry Gorenburg

Dmitry Gorenburg — Sat, 26 Jan 2013 03:51:54 +0000

Oh, that's definitely a big part of the reason for the Lynx contract. There's a reason why Oboronservis had the contract initially, and also why it was handed over to Rostekhnologiia when the Oboronservis scandal started to come out. I'm not someone who thinks that all imports are good imports. But this may be a case of throwing the baby out with the bathwater. The threat of imports was important in pushing domestic defense industry to modernize and improve its products. Without the threat, I fear they'll just go back to the old ways. Bogdanov's article makes this point much more eloquently than I could.

By: Ray C. Finch III

Ray C. Finch III — Fri, 25 Jan 2013 21:37:28 +0000

Agree wholeheartedly with everything but the last paragraph. There were lots of reasons for Serdyukov’s removal, most of them tied to winning political points (by ‘proving’ that the Kremlin was serious about fighting corruption). I’m not so sure either of the sharp divide between the MoD and the Russian MIC. Perhaps a better analogy is between those hogs who today have their snouts in the trough versus those who were recently removed.

Should the need arise, I would wager that smart folks within the MoD and FSB will figure out how to acquire high-tech, foreign-made military equipment underneath the radar screen. These latest pronouncements about no more foreign military purchases strike me as political PR. Putin and Co. continue to vigorously wave the Russian flag hoping to distract the multitudes while the plunder continues.

By: AK

AK — Fri, 25 Jan 2013 21:06:53 +0000

While some of the import decisions were logical (e.g. the Mistral, and Israeli drones) a lot of the others were a lot more questionable.

In particular, the decision to source the Centauro wheeled tank destroyers and the Lynx from Italy at a time when Russia has analogous designs in the works and close to production – the wheeled Boomerang family and the Kurganets-25 tracked armored vehicle – appears particularly bizarre.

There is a lot of speculation on the Internet that the reason the Italians got the contracts for the armored vehicles was because of backhanders to Serdyukov or his people like Vasilyeva. With the unending stream of new corruption revelations about them I have to say that this is not a possibility that should be dismissed out of hand.

What do you think of this?

By: Max

Max — Fri, 25 Jan 2013 20:37:49 +0000

Another problem I’ve noticed is that defense contractors are concerned solely with profit, even if it means selling highly sensitive technologies to China (Lada diesel-electric subs, Su-35 – the engines in particular) and seriously damaging national security and potentially sabotaging themselves on the arms market a couple years down the road.

Regarding Serdyukov, one thing he really should have done was force manufacturers to unify around several key types/platforms (i.e. Su-30/35 instead of a clusterf**k of Su-24M, Su-27SM, Su-30, Su-34, Su-35, Mig-29SMT, Mig-35; Mi-28 and Mi-8 instead of Mi-28N/NM, Mi-35M, Ka-52, Mi-17, Mi-26).

Both the MoD and MIC need to be smarter about long-term planning going forward which would involve producing larger quantities of a smaller number of platforms. As long as they continue importing modern technologies and setting up joint ventures with Western firms, they should be fine when it comes to procuring the latest know-how.
That’s my two cents.